Recently, as the weather in the Northeast has improved, the amount of corn on the market has increased significantly. The introduction of the temporary reserve policy constitutes a bottom support for corn prices, which will stimulate corn prices to rise in the short term, but its impact is limited and unsustainable. With sufficient supply and general downstream demand, it is difficult for corn to get rid of the weak oscillation pattern in the short term.

The weather improves and corn prices in Northeast China weaken

Analyzed by shipping schedule, 430,000 tons of corn will arrive at Guangdong port before the end of the month. The short-term supply pressure is relatively high, and the price of corn is stable and declining. Traders have a weakening attitude towards selling goods. Feed companies are currently focusing on digesting inventory. They have a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of corn in Guangdong ports may continue to show a weak trend in the short term.

In the early days, snow fell in most parts of the Northeast, which greatly reduced the number of new grains listed, which seriously affected the acquisition activities of enterprises. Most enterprises increased prices in exchange for acquisitions. Recently, with the reduction of weather influence factors, roads in most parts of Northeast China have resumed transportation, and the speed of new grain launches has accelerated. In addition, due to weaker prices in Guangzhou, traders tend to be cautious in purchasing, and their enthusiasm for purchasing has weakened. It is expected that under the condition that the weather continues to be fine, the Northeast market will usher in the first wave of grain sales, and the price of corn will be suppressed to a certain extent.

Feed demand has picked up

The price of live pigs has risen recently, feed prices have continued to fall slightly, and the profits of farmers have returned to above the cost line. Coupled with the approach of the peak pork consumption season, farmers have significantly increased their willingness to hold down. At present, the stock of live pigs is at a high level and continues to increase slightly, and the demand for feed is also increasing. Due to the reversal of wheat and corn prices, the advantage of replacing corn in feed with wheat has been completely lost, and the price advantage of corn has become prominent. Most companies have adjusted feed formulas and increased corn purchases. The higher total feed demand and the increase in the proportion of corn in the feed are driving corn prices.

Due to the economic downturn, the downstream demand of the corn deep processing industry is sluggish, and the price continues to fall. After the short-term recovery in the early period, the profitability fell again, and the profit loss of corn starch processing was further expanded. The current loss of corn starch processing enterprises has reached 300 yuan/ton. The processing profits of alcohol enterprises have also fallen sharply, further reducing the demand for corn and suppressing corn prices.

Policy purchase and storage form the bottom support

The National Development and Reform Commission's "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the 2012 Autumn Grain Purchase" related to the purchase and storage policy of corn: Heilongjiang Province 1.05 yuan/jin (the new national standard third-class quality standard), Jilin Province 1.06 yuan/jin, Liaoning Province and Inner Mongolia 1.07 yuan/ton, the price difference between adjacent grades is 40 yuan/ton, the discount ratio is 1:1.65 (last year was 1:1.5), drying fee is not included, purchase fee is 50 yuan, northeast is open for purchase, north China is not started. Affected by the purchasing and storage policy, the main Dalian corn C1305 contract oscillated higher from the staged bottom of 2400. Although the purchasing and storage prices are lower than previous market expectations and the short-term impact is limited, the corn price will be supported by this in the long run.

To sum up, the recent arrivals of the southern ports have concentrated, the northern corn market has increased and the supply is sufficient, traders are cautious in purchasing, and the northern and southern ports have stabilized and weakened prices. Although corn feed consumption is picking up, there is a tendency to drive corn prices higher, but the demand for corn deep processing industry is not optimistic when the domestic and foreign economies still have not improved significantly, and the recovery of feed demand cannot alone support the substantial increase in corn prices. It is expected that under the intertwining of long and short factors, the corn price will oscillate mainly in the range of 2400-2460 in the near future, and investors can sell high and buy low, and operate on a wave.

~ Recently, as the weather in Northeast China improves, the amount of corn on the market has increased significantly. The introduction of the temporary reserve policy constitutes a bottom support for corn prices, which will stimulate corn prices to rise in the short term, but its impact is limited and unsustainable. With sufficient supply and general downstream demand, it is difficult for corn to get rid of the weak oscillation pattern in the short term.

The weather improves and corn prices in Northeast China weaken

Analyzed by shipping schedule, 430,000 tons of corn will arrive at Guangdong port before the end of the month. The short-term supply pressure is relatively high, and the price of corn is stable and declining. Traders have a weakening attitude towards selling goods. Feed companies are currently focusing on digesting inventory. They have a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of corn in Guangdong ports may continue to show a weak trend in the short term.

In the early days, snow fell in most parts of the Northeast, which greatly reduced the number of new grains listed, which seriously affected the acquisition activities of enterprises. Most enterprises increased prices in exchange for acquisitions. Recently, with the reduction of weather influence factors, roads in most parts of the Northeast have resumed transportation, and the speed of new grain launches has accelerated. In addition, due to weaker prices in Guangzhou, traders tend to be cautious in purchasing, and their enthusiasm for purchasing has weakened. It is expected that under the condition that the weather continues to be fine, the Northeast market will usher in the first wave of grain sales, and the price of corn will be suppressed to a certain extent.

Feed demand has picked up

The price of live pigs has risen recently, feed prices have continued to fall slightly, and the profits of farmers have returned to above the cost line. Coupled with the approach of the peak pork consumption season, farmers have significantly increased their willingness to hold down. At present, the stock of live pigs is at a high level and continues to increase slightly, and the demand for feed is also increasing. Due to the reversal of wheat and corn prices, the advantage of replacing corn in feed with wheat has been completely lost, and the price advantage of corn has become prominent. Most companies have adjusted feed formulas and increased corn purchases. The higher total feed demand and the increase in the proportion of corn in the feed are driving corn prices.

Due to the economic downturn, the downstream demand of the corn deep processing industry is sluggish, and the price continues to fall. After the short-term recovery in the early period, the profitability fell again, and the profit loss of corn starch processing was further expanded. The current loss of corn starch processing enterprises has reached 300 yuan/ton. The processing profits of alcohol enterprises have also fallen sharply, further reducing the demand for corn and suppressing corn prices.

Policy purchase and storage form the bottom support

The National Development and Reform Commission's "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the 2012 Autumn Grain Purchase" related to the purchase and storage policy of corn: Heilongjiang Province 1.05 yuan/jin (the new national standard third-class quality standard), Jilin Province 1.06 yuan/jin, Liaoning Province and Inner Mongolia 1.07 yuan/ton, the price difference between adjacent grades is 40 yuan/ton, the discount ratio is 1:1.65 (last year was 1:1.5), drying fee is not included, purchase fee is 50 yuan, northeast is open for purchase, north China is not started. Affected by the purchasing and storage policies, the main Dalian corn C1305 contract oscillated higher from the staged bottom of 2400. Although the purchasing and storage prices are lower than previous market expectations, and the short-term impact is limited, corn prices will be supported by this in the long run.

To sum up, the recent arrivals of the southern ports have concentrated, the northern corn has increased in the market and the supply is sufficient, traders are cautious in purchasing, and the north and south port prices have stabilized and weakened. Although corn feed consumption is picking up, there is a tendency to drive corn prices higher, but the demand for corn deep processing industry is not optimistic when the domestic and foreign economies still have not improved significantly, and the pick-up of feed demand cannot alone support a substantial increase in corn prices. It is expected that under the intertwining of long and short factors, the corn price will oscillate mainly in the range of 2400-2460 in the near future, and investors can sell high and buy low, and operate on a wave.